Showing posts with label Pakistan. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Pakistan. Show all posts

Monday, May 12, 2025

Will India negotiate PoK from Pakistan?

Strategies in war are not clear upfront. The winner usually uses an element of surprise (timing, new paths, new technologies, new combinations, new allies, new fronts) that the enemy has not thought of or prepared for.

Similarly, a few statements now and then my the Indian establishment didn't reveal the strategy till substantial dots are there to make sense of the pattern.

The few dots:
1. Indus Water Treaty being suspended, (not cancelled)

2. "Picture toh abhi baaki hai", tweet from Former Chief of Army Staff Naravane after the initial night strike of the 9 terrorist camps.

3. Today's message from PM "Talks would on terrorism and PoK"

Can we now link these three points and see the pattern emerging?
India would resume the Indus Water Treaty only when Pakistan gives back Pakistan occupied Kashmir.

Is this what we are looking at or aiming at?

If so, this is very thoughtful, strategic and absolutely amazing!

Sunday, April 27, 2025

Far more nail-biting than IPL!

This IPL season, there is one real nail biting and interesting match I am eager to witness.

The real India Pakistan match.

And how India is going to thrash the Pakistani military and its puppet govt.

India will go with Military action this time too. The question is when? Tonight or tomorrow night or day after night? The bets are on!

India has already flooded a district of PoK last night.

What is different this time is the context.

External to both these countries, the state of the 2 biggest associated countries - China and USA and the 2 running wars.

China usually supports Pakistan militarily and has been against India in multiple fronts including the trade front. But this time, if India gains some key areas in PoK, the China invested area in PoK for the Belt and Road Initiative would be for India to destroy or overtake. This would be interesting to see how China would respond: Whether it would ask India to not destroy their investment or to deter India, start a parallel military campaign on India-China border. The other change this time is China's slowly warming to India after many years of the military standoff as its trade war with USA is raging.

USA this time is very different than all the historical USA. With an indifferent Trump at its President who has very weird goals, (like making Gaza a tourist spot) and not getting USA into any new war and trying to end the Russia-Ukraine war. But, unfortunately, as usual, USA has supported Pakistan again and given USD 400 million aid to Pakistan to sustain its F-16s. Mostly, USA wants to watch the 'fun' from the sidelines and then ask India to invest more into its Apaches, AWACs, F-35s and other military platforms.

Wars are not anathema in today's world. The Russian war on Ukraine saw the first fulls scale war in history in Europe after 60+ years. The Israel-Palestine war is also running. People are not so against war and reasonably expect it in case of retribution.

This time, the Indian govt. is more determined to take action than the previous govts and is willing to make use of all the historical mistakes it has done previously and turn it around.

Best case scenario: 

1. Breakup of Pakistan into an independent Balochistan (40% of Pakistan territory) and the rest of Pakistan

2. Retaking of PoK by India

3. Destruction of China's investment in PoK worth billions and stopping China in its tracks

Only if Pakistan was not nuclear armed, all this could have been achieved with much ease.

Fingers crossed and waiting to read the books on this war and the strategies employed a few years from now.