Monday, September 30, 2013

All hail the projections!

Bigger image available here:

Today's economic times report has an article titled "How clouded is our financial forecasting?"
The picture above gives the GDP growth prediction according to RBI's survey of professional economists sitting in the same financial year and making a prediction of the GDP growth at the end of the current financial year.
The numbers are shocking! If this group can get it so wrong, how will analysts of equity research and other analysts work on their assumptions, which are further derived in some way or another on this data.

I think it is time to employ monkeys to predict data as they have amply demonstrated their skills in the monkey funds.